Miami (KMIA) Temperature Market Guide
KMIA • Miami International Airport
Kalshi IBKR Robinhood Polymarket
Miami International Airport (KMIA) provides a unique tropical trading opportunity, available on both Kalshi and ForecastEx. As one of the southernmost major airports in the continental United States, Miami's climate is dominated by tropical and maritime influences that create a distinctly different trading environment compared to other U.S. markets. Understanding the sea breeze, tropical moisture, and Florida's unique weather patterns is essential for success.
Quick Facts
| Station Code | KMIA |
|---|---|
| Location | Miami, FL |
| Coordinates | 25.7881°N, 80.3169°W |
| Elevation | 9 ft (3 m) |
| Timezone | ET (America/New_York) |
| NWS Office | Miami (MFL) |
| Resolution Source | NWS CLI Report ↗ |
About the KMIA Weather Station
The KMIA ASOS is located at Miami International Airport, one of the busiest international airports in the United States. Situated at just 9 feet above sea level in western Miami-Dade County, the station sits approximately 8 miles west of Biscayne Bay and about 15 miles from the Atlantic Ocean beaches.
The airport's inland position relative to the coast is significant for temperature forecasting. The sea breeze, which develops most days, typically reaches the airport by early-to-mid afternoon, often moderating temperatures after the daily high has been recorded.
The airport's inland position relative to the coast is significant for temperature forecasting. The sea breeze, which develops most days, typically reaches the airport by early-to-mid afternoon, often moderating temperatures after the daily high has been recorded.
Miami Climate & Temperature Patterns
Miami experiences a tropical monsoon climate (Koppen: Am), characterized by warm temperatures year-round, distinct wet and dry seasons, and the ever-present influence of the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. This is the only major U.S. temperature market with a truly tropical climate.
Key Climate Factors:
Maritime Influence: The Atlantic Ocean and Gulf Stream keep temperatures remarkably stable compared to continental locations. Daily temperature ranges are relatively small, typically only 10-15°F between overnight lows and afternoon highs.
Sea Breeze Dominance: The sea breeze is a daily feature of Miami weather during the warm season. It typically develops by late morning along the coast and pushes inland through the afternoon, often bringing thunderstorms during summer.
Wet Season (May-October): Characterized by daily afternoon thunderstorms, high humidity, and temperatures that rarely exceed the low-to-mid 90s°F due to cloud cover and rain cooling.
Dry Season (November-April): More stable conditions with lower humidity, less rainfall, and occasionally strong cold fronts.
Key Climate Factors:
Maritime Influence: The Atlantic Ocean and Gulf Stream keep temperatures remarkably stable compared to continental locations. Daily temperature ranges are relatively small, typically only 10-15°F between overnight lows and afternoon highs.
Sea Breeze Dominance: The sea breeze is a daily feature of Miami weather during the warm season. It typically develops by late morning along the coast and pushes inland through the afternoon, often bringing thunderstorms during summer.
Wet Season (May-October): Characterized by daily afternoon thunderstorms, high humidity, and temperatures that rarely exceed the low-to-mid 90s°F due to cloud cover and rain cooling.
Dry Season (November-April): More stable conditions with lower humidity, less rainfall, and occasionally strong cold fronts.
📊 View Real-Time Miami Data
Access live temperature readings, forecasts from 15+ models, and historical analysis tools.
Open Live DashboardSeasonal Trading Considerations
Winter (December - February):
The most variable season in Miami. Cold fronts can push through, dropping temperatures dramatically for 1-2 days before tropical warmth returns. Highs typically range from the low 70s°F after cold fronts to the low 80s°F during warm periods.
Spring (March - May):
Transition period with gradually increasing warmth and humidity. Cold fronts become less frequent and weaker. The wet season typically begins in mid-May.
Summer (June - August):
Peak of the wet season with afternoon thunderstorms almost daily. Temperatures are remarkably consistent, typically reaching the high 80s to low 90s°F each day. The sea breeze and afternoon storms act as natural air conditioning.
Fall (September - November):
Hurricane season peaks in September-October. When tropical systems aren't threatening, weather is similar to summer through October.
The most variable season in Miami. Cold fronts can push through, dropping temperatures dramatically for 1-2 days before tropical warmth returns. Highs typically range from the low 70s°F after cold fronts to the low 80s°F during warm periods.
Spring (March - May):
Transition period with gradually increasing warmth and humidity. Cold fronts become less frequent and weaker. The wet season typically begins in mid-May.
Summer (June - August):
Peak of the wet season with afternoon thunderstorms almost daily. Temperatures are remarkably consistent, typically reaching the high 80s to low 90s°F each day. The sea breeze and afternoon storms act as natural air conditioning.
Fall (September - November):
Hurricane season peaks in September-October. When tropical systems aren't threatening, weather is similar to summer through October.
Miami-Specific Trading Tips
Sea Breeze Timing is Critical: The daily high is almost always recorded before the sea breeze arrives and brings cooling clouds/rain. On days when the sea breeze develops earlier or more strongly, highs will be lower.
Watch for Cold Front Timing: During winter, the exact hour a cold front passes determines whether temperatures peak before or after the frontal passage.
Thunderstorm Coverage Matters: Summer afternoon thunderstorms are virtually guaranteed, but their exact location and timing vary. Widespread early storms mean lower highs.
Narrow Temperature Range: Miami's daily temperature range is typically only 10-15°F. This means bracket outcomes are often decided by just 1-2°F, making precise forecasting essential.
Watch for Cold Front Timing: During winter, the exact hour a cold front passes determines whether temperatures peak before or after the frontal passage.
Thunderstorm Coverage Matters: Summer afternoon thunderstorms are virtually guaranteed, but their exact location and timing vary. Widespread early storms mean lower highs.
Narrow Temperature Range: Miami's daily temperature range is typically only 10-15°F. This means bracket outcomes are often decided by just 1-2°F, making precise forecasting essential.
Market Resolution Details
Miami temperature markets resolve based on the official high temperature in the NWS CLI for station KMIA, issued by the Miami forecast office (MFL).
Resolution Source: NWS CLI (Climatological Report)
Reporting Period: 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM Eastern Standard Time.
Note on Consistency: Miami's tropical climate means less day-to-day temperature variability than northern markets. This can lead to more contested brackets near the forecast high.
Resolution Source: NWS CLI (Climatological Report)
Reporting Period: 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM Eastern Standard Time.
Note on Consistency: Miami's tropical climate means less day-to-day temperature variability than northern markets. This can lead to more contested brackets near the forecast high.
Data Release Schedule
Typical release times for key data products at KMIA. Times shown in UTC.
| Data Type | Typical Time (UTC) | Variability |
|---|---|---|
| CLI Report Daily climatological summary |
09:24 UTC | ±3 min |
| 24hr High METAR with max temp |
04:53 UTC | ±1 min |
| METAR Hourly observations |
Hourly at :53 | ±1 min |
| DSM #1 Daily summary message |
21:12 UTC | Issuance time |
| DSM #2 Daily summary message |
07:22 UTC | Issuance time |
| DSM #3 Daily summary message |
20:12 UTC | Issuance time |
| DSM #4 Daily summary message |
07:26 UTC | Issuance time |
6-Hour High/Low Reports
These METARs include 6-hour maximum and minimum temperatures, useful for tracking intraday temperature trends.
05:53 UTC
11:53 UTC
17:53 UTC
23:53 UTC
Note: Times are approximate and may vary. CLI reports are the official resolution source for temperature markets. See NWS Data Guide for more information.
Data Resources
Quick links to official data sources and tools for Miami.
📊 NWS Data
🗄️ Iowa Environmental Mesonet
📈 Wethr.net Tools
Forecasting Challenges
Sea Breeze Prediction: The exact timing, strength, and inland penetration of the sea breeze varies daily. Models often struggle with the precise timing of the sea breeze front.
Thunderstorm Initiation: Predicting exactly where and when afternoon storms will develop is notoriously difficult. The sea breeze convergence zone is a preferred area but storms can fire anywhere.
Cold Front Speed: During winter, predicting the exact timing of cold front passages is challenging. Fronts can slow down or speed up as they approach the peninsula.
Thunderstorm Initiation: Predicting exactly where and when afternoon storms will develop is notoriously difficult. The sea breeze convergence zone is a preferred area but storms can fire anywhere.
Cold Front Speed: During winter, predicting the exact timing of cold front passages is challenging. Fronts can slow down or speed up as they approach the peninsula.
Historical Temperature Records
Record High: 98°F, recorded multiple times. 100°F has never been officially recorded at Miami International Airport - the sea breeze prevents such extremes.
Record Low: 30°F in January 1917. Freezing temperatures are exceptionally rare.
90°F+ Days: Miami averages about 55-65 days per year with highs at or above 90°F, with most occurring from May through September.
Consistency: Miami's average high temperature only varies from about 76°F in January to 91°F in August - a remarkably small annual range.
Record Low: 30°F in January 1917. Freezing temperatures are exceptionally rare.
90°F+ Days: Miami averages about 55-65 days per year with highs at or above 90°F, with most occurring from May through September.
Consistency: Miami's average high temperature only varies from about 76°F in January to 91°F in August - a remarkably small annual range.
📡 Official Data Sources
Ready to Trade Miami?
Get the tools and data you need to make informed decisions.
View Live Dashboard Create Free Account