New York Central Park (KNYC) Temperature Market Guide
KNYC • New York City Central Park
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New York City's Central Park (KNYC) hosts one of the most prestigious temperature markets in the United States, available on both Kalshi and ForecastEx. Unlike most markets based at airports, KNYC is located in the heart of Manhattan within Central Park, making it uniquely influenced by the urban heat island effect. This guide covers everything traders need to know about this iconic market.
Quick Facts
| Station Code | KNYC |
|---|---|
| Location | New York, NY |
| Coordinates | 40.7790°N, 73.9692°W |
| Elevation | 154 ft (47 m) |
| Timezone | ET (America/New_York) |
| NWS Office | New York (OKX) |
| Resolution Source | NWS CLI Report ↗ |
About the KNYC Weather Station
The KNYC weather station is located within Central Park in Manhattan, specifically at the Belvedere Castle observation site. This location has been recording weather data since 1869, making it one of the longest continuous climate records in the United States.
Unlike airport-based markets, Central Park is surrounded by the dense urban environment of Manhattan. This creates a significant urban heat island effect, particularly for overnight low temperatures. However, the park itself provides some local cooling compared to surrounding streets.
Unlike airport-based markets, Central Park is surrounded by the dense urban environment of Manhattan. This creates a significant urban heat island effect, particularly for overnight low temperatures. However, the park itself provides some local cooling compared to surrounding streets.
New York City Climate & Temperature Patterns
New York City experiences a humid subtropical climate (Koppen: Cfa) with hot, humid summers and cold winters. The city's coastal location, urban density, and position in the Northeast's weather corridor create distinctive patterns.
Key Climate Factors:
Urban Heat Island: Central Park is notably warmer than surrounding rural areas, especially at night. The dense urban environment of Manhattan stores and re-radiates heat, keeping overnight lows elevated. This effect can add 5-10°F to minimum temperatures.
Coastal Influence: The Atlantic Ocean moderates temperatures, keeping summers somewhat cooler and winters somewhat milder than inland areas. Sea breezes can develop during summer.
Nor'easters: These powerful coastal storms are a defining feature of NYC weather, bringing heavy snow in winter and heavy rain in other seasons.
Key Climate Factors:
Urban Heat Island: Central Park is notably warmer than surrounding rural areas, especially at night. The dense urban environment of Manhattan stores and re-radiates heat, keeping overnight lows elevated. This effect can add 5-10°F to minimum temperatures.
Coastal Influence: The Atlantic Ocean moderates temperatures, keeping summers somewhat cooler and winters somewhat milder than inland areas. Sea breezes can develop during summer.
Nor'easters: These powerful coastal storms are a defining feature of NYC weather, bringing heavy snow in winter and heavy rain in other seasons.
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Open Live DashboardSeasonal Trading Considerations
Winter (December - February):
Cold with average highs in the upper 30s to low 40s°F. Major snowstorms (nor'easters) can paralyze the city. Cold air outbreaks can send temperatures into the teens. The urban heat island keeps NYC warmer than suburbs.
Spring (March - May):
Highly variable with potential for late snowstorms through April and early heat waves by May. Temperature swings can be dramatic week-to-week.
Summer (June - August):
Hot and humid with average highs in the low-to-mid 80s°F. Heat waves with temperatures above 90°F are common. High humidity makes heat feel more oppressive.
Fall (September - November):
Generally pleasant with gradually declining temperatures. September can still see heat waves. Hurricane season occasionally affects the city through October.
Cold with average highs in the upper 30s to low 40s°F. Major snowstorms (nor'easters) can paralyze the city. Cold air outbreaks can send temperatures into the teens. The urban heat island keeps NYC warmer than suburbs.
Spring (March - May):
Highly variable with potential for late snowstorms through April and early heat waves by May. Temperature swings can be dramatic week-to-week.
Summer (June - August):
Hot and humid with average highs in the low-to-mid 80s°F. Heat waves with temperatures above 90°F are common. High humidity makes heat feel more oppressive.
Fall (September - November):
Generally pleasant with gradually declining temperatures. September can still see heat waves. Hurricane season occasionally affects the city through October.
NYC-Specific Trading Tips
Central Park vs. Airports: Central Park (KNYC) is the official NYC climate station. LaGuardia (KLGA) and JFK have different markets with different temperatures. Always verify which station you're trading.
Urban Heat Island Implications: Central Park's urban location means it often reaches higher daytime temperatures than suburban areas. Models may underestimate urban heating.
Sea Breeze Effect: On hot days, a sea breeze from the Atlantic can moderate afternoon temperatures, preventing expected highs from being reached.
Nor'easter Timing: During major storms, temperature patterns can be complex. The track and intensity dramatically affects temperatures.
Urban Heat Island Implications: Central Park's urban location means it often reaches higher daytime temperatures than suburban areas. Models may underestimate urban heating.
Sea Breeze Effect: On hot days, a sea breeze from the Atlantic can moderate afternoon temperatures, preventing expected highs from being reached.
Nor'easter Timing: During major storms, temperature patterns can be complex. The track and intensity dramatically affects temperatures.
Market Resolution Details
NYC temperature markets on Kalshi and ForecastEx resolve based on the official high temperature in the NWS CLI for station KNYC (Central Park), issued by the New York forecast office (OKX).
Resolution Source: NWS CLI (Climatological Report)
Reporting Period: 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM Eastern Standard Time.
Important Note: NYC Kalshi/ForecastEx markets use Central Park (KNYC). Polymarket NYC markets use LaGuardia (KLGA). Confirm which station you're trading.
Resolution Source: NWS CLI (Climatological Report)
Reporting Period: 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM Eastern Standard Time.
Important Note: NYC Kalshi/ForecastEx markets use Central Park (KNYC). Polymarket NYC markets use LaGuardia (KLGA). Confirm which station you're trading.
Data Release Schedule
Typical release times for key data products at KNYC. Times shown in UTC.
| Data Type | Typical Time (UTC) | Variability |
|---|---|---|
| CLI Report Daily climatological summary |
06:23 UTC | ±22 min |
| 24hr High METAR with max temp |
04:51 UTC | ±1 min |
| METAR Hourly observations |
Hourly at :51 | ±0 min |
| DSM #1 Daily summary message |
21:17 UTC | Issuance time |
| DSM #2 Daily summary message |
20:17 UTC | Issuance time |
| DSM #3 Daily summary message |
20:16 UTC | Issuance time |
| DSM #4 Daily summary message |
21:16 UTC | Issuance time |
6-Hour High/Low Reports
These METARs include 6-hour maximum and minimum temperatures, useful for tracking intraday temperature trends.
05:51 UTC
11:51 UTC
17:51 UTC
23:51 UTC
Note: Times are approximate and may vary. CLI reports are the official resolution source for temperature markets. See NWS Data Guide for more information.
Data Resources
Quick links to official data sources and tools for New York.
📊 NWS Data
🗄️ Iowa Environmental Mesonet
📈 Wethr.net Tools
Forecasting Challenges
Urban Heat Quantification: Accurately predicting the urban heat island effect is challenging. The magnitude varies with wind speed, cloud cover, and season.
Sea Breeze Prediction: Determining whether and when a sea breeze will develop and penetrate to Central Park affects high temperature predictions.
Nor'easter Tracks: Small changes in storm tracks dramatically change whether NYC sees rain, snow, or extreme cold.
Sea Breeze Prediction: Determining whether and when a sea breeze will develop and penetrate to Central Park affects high temperature predictions.
Nor'easter Tracks: Small changes in storm tracks dramatically change whether NYC sees rain, snow, or extreme cold.
Historical Temperature Records
Record High: 106°F recorded in July 1936.
Record Low: -15°F recorded in February 1934.
Modern Records: In recent decades, temperatures have reached 103-104°F during extreme heat waves, most recently in 2012.
90°F+ Days: NYC averages about 18-20 days per year at or above 90°F, concentrated in June-August.
Record Low: -15°F recorded in February 1934.
Modern Records: In recent decades, temperatures have reached 103-104°F during extreme heat waves, most recently in 2012.
90°F+ Days: NYC averages about 18-20 days per year at or above 90°F, concentrated in June-August.
📡 Official Data Sources
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