Paris (LFPG) Temperature Market Guide

Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport (LFPG) is France's largest and busiest airport, located approximately 25 kilometers northeast of central Paris in the commune of Roissy-en-France. The station sits at 392 feet (119 meters) elevation on the relatively flat terrain of the Île-de-France region.

The airport's position northeast of the Paris urban area means it is somewhat removed from the strongest urban heat island effects of central Paris, which can run several degrees warmer, particularly at night. However, the airport itself generates significant local heat from its extensive paved surfaces and operations.

Temperature observations are reported in Celsius and follow World Meteorological Organization standards. France observes Central European Time (CET, UTC+1) in winter and Central European Summer Time (CEST, UTC+2) from late March to late October.

Paris has an oceanic climate (Köppen: Cfb) with cool winters, warm summers, and precipitation distributed relatively evenly throughout the year. The city's location in the broad Paris Basin provides little topographic shelter from weather systems.

Key Climate Factors:

Atlantic Influence: Prevailing westerly winds bring maritime air from the Atlantic, moderating both winter cold and summer heat under normal conditions. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase significantly affects seasonal temperature patterns.

Continental Intrusions: Blocking high pressure patterns can redirect airflow, bringing bitterly cold continental air from Russia in winter or scorching heat from the Sahara in summer. These events produce the most extreme temperatures.

Urban Heat Island: Central Paris can be 3-5°C warmer than surrounding rural areas, particularly at night. CDG airport, being northeast of the city, experiences a weaker urban heat island effect than central Paris stations like Montsouris.

Heat Wave Intensification: Since the deadly 2003 heat wave, Paris has experienced increasingly frequent and intense summer heat events, with records being broken repeatedly in recent years. This trend is a critical factor for summer trading.

Winter (December - February): Cool and often overcast with average highs around 6-8°C (43-46°F). Extended grey, drizzly periods are common when Atlantic systems dominate. Cold snaps from eastern Europe can drop highs below freezing. Snow is relatively uncommon but possible. Persistent fog can suppress temperatures.

Spring (March - May): Gradually warming with increasing sunshine. Temperatures are highly variable, ranging from near-winter conditions in early March to summer-like warmth by late May. Late frosts remain possible into April. The jet stream position determines whether Paris experiences warm southwesterly or cool northerly flow.

Summer (June - August): Warm with average highs around 24-26°C (75-79°F). Heat waves have become increasingly common and intense — the 2019 event brought 42.6°C (108.7°F) to Paris. Thunderstorms can develop during hot spells, temporarily cooling conditions. Long daylight hours (up to 16+ hours in June).

Autumn (September - November): Pleasant in September, then progressively cooler and wetter. Indian summer conditions are possible into October. November becomes grey and cool as winter patterns establish. Temperature drops accelerate through the season.

Atlantic vs. Continental flow is the fundamental driver of Paris temperatures. Check the position and strength of the Azores High and any blocking patterns over Scandinavia or eastern Europe. When blocking develops, temperatures deviate significantly from normal in either direction.

Summer heat waves are the highest-impact events for Paris markets. Saharan heat plumes (plumes de chaleur) are generally well-forecast 3-5 days in advance by European models. When 850mb temperatures exceed 20°C over northern France, extreme surface heat is likely.

CDG airport will typically read cooler than central Paris during heat waves (by 2-4°C) due to its location outside the urban core. Be careful not to apply central Paris forecasts directly to CDG.

Météo-France provides excellent forecast data, and the ECMWF (headquartered nearby in Reading, UK) excels in European weather prediction. The ECMWF model should be weighted heavily for Paris forecasting.

France observes Daylight Saving Time — clocks move forward in late March and back in late October. This affects the UTC offset (CET UTC+1 in winter, CEST UTC+2 in summer).

Paris temperature markets on Polymarket resolve using Weather Underground historical data for LFPG (Charles de Gaulle Airport). Temperatures are recorded in Celsius.

The observation day follows local time conventions. France observes Central European Time (CET, UTC+1) in winter and Central European Summer Time (CEST, UTC+2) in summer.

View Paris Weather History on Weather Underground →

Heat Wave Magnitude: While heat waves are generally well-predicted in terms of occurrence, the exact peak temperature during extreme events is challenging. The difference between a 38°C and 42°C day has significant market implications.

Cloud Cover Persistence: Winter and transitional season cloud cover can be difficult to forecast precisely. The difference between an overcast day (highs of 8°C) and a sunny day (highs of 14°C) in winter is substantial.

CDG vs. Central Paris: The airport's location creates systematic differences from what many general Paris forecasts predict. Traders must account for the fact that CDG is typically cooler during heat events and potentially colder during winter inversions.

Blocking Pattern Duration: When atmospheric blocking develops, predicting how long it will persist — and therefore how long a heat wave or cold spell will last — is one of the hardest challenges in medium-range forecasting.

Fog and Inversion Effects: Autumn and winter fog at CDG can keep temperatures suppressed all day if the inversion layer holds. Predicting whether fog will burn off by midday or persist is notoriously difficult.

Record High: 42.6°C (108.7°F) recorded at Paris Montsouris on July 25, 2019. CDG reached 41.6°C during the same event, demonstrating the urban-suburban temperature differential.

Record Low: -23.9°C (-11.0°F) recorded in Paris in December 1879.

Heat Wave Trend: Paris has experienced a marked increase in extreme heat events in recent decades. The 2003 heat wave (which caused thousands of excess deaths across France), 2019, and 2022 events all pushed temperatures well above 40°C in Paris — territory that was historically considered nearly impossible for the region.

Historical Note: Paris's maritime-influenced climate historically kept summer extremes moderate. The increasing frequency of 40°C+ events represents a significant shift that makes historical climate normals less reliable as a forecasting baseline.